Hey folks, if you’re into gold, get ready for a wild week! As we dive into the first week of June 2024, things are heating up in the gold market. We’re talking about big economic indicators and geopolitical issues that could send gold prices soaring or crashing. Here’s the lowdown on what’s coming up.

Economic Highlights to Watch

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Mark your calendars for June 7th – that’s when the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report drops. This report is a big deal because it shows how the U.S. job market is doing. Strong numbers here could boost the U.S. dollar and push gold prices down. On the flip side, weak numbers might make gold prices go up as people look for safer investments.

Federal Reserve Moves

Keep an eye on what the Federal Reserve is up to. If they hint at lowering interest rates, gold could become more attractive since it doesn’t yield interest. But if they signal they’re raising rates, it might hurt gold’s appeal. Watch out for any Fed statements or economic data that could sway their decisions.

Geopolitical and Economic Factors

Global Tensions

Geopolitical drama is always a gold mover. Any flare-ups or conflicts can drive investors to gold. If tensions rise, especially between major countries, expect gold prices to jump.

Global Economic Data

Don’t ignore economic reports from big players like China and the Eurozone. If their economies show signs of slowing down, gold might shine brighter as a safe haven.

Technical Breakdown

Price Trends and Key Levels

Gold’s been on a rollercoaster lately. Analysts from DailyFX are eyeing key support levels around $2,277.23 and resistance at $2,449.98. Breaking these levels could lead to big price swings.

Market Sentiment

The mood in the market is mixed. Some think gold’s rally has paused, but the overall vibe is still bullish because of ongoing economic uncertainties.

What the Experts Say

Analyst Predictions

Top financial firms like Goldman Sachs and CitiGroup are pretty optimistic, seeing gold hitting $2,400 per ounce by year’s end, thanks to economic woes and dovish central banks. On the other hand, the World Bank is more cautious, expecting around $1,900.

Long-term Views

Experts like Ronald Stoeferle from Incrementum AG predict gold could reach $2,500 by the end of 2024. This forecast hinges on continued economic troubles and strong demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency issues.

Wrapping It Up

So, gear up for some action in the gold market this week. With key economic data like the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and Federal Reserve hints in play, plus geopolitical and global economic factors, we’re in for some volatility. But overall, the outlook for gold remains positive amid these uncertain times. Stay tuned!

 

It’s been quite a ride in the gold market lately, with XAU/USD breaking the $1,990 barrier and heading north against the US dollar. What’s fueling this surge, and where is the gold market headed? Let’s break it down in a casual yet professional style.

As per my last blog post, I suggested that if XAU/USD would break through the $1,953 price level, it would likely make its way to the next resistance at $1,982. And lo and behold, it did just that! It’s always exciting when market movements align with our predictions.

This successful call showcases the potential of staying informed and keeping a watchful eye on market dynamics. Kudos to those who saw the opportunity and took action. Let’s continue to navigate the twists and turns of the financial world with confidence and insight.

Middle East Tensions and Safe-Haven Appeal

One major driving force behind the gold rush is the persistent uncertainty in the Middle East. As geopolitical tensions escalate between Israel, Hamas, and regional players like Iran, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, and gold is their top pick. This trend is likely to continue, at least in the short term.

US Treasury Yields and Gold’s Ascent

Another factor giving gold a lift is the declining US Treasury yields. As these yields drop, gold finds firmer footing. It’s like a seesaw: when one side goes down, the other goes up.

ETF Holdings and Technical Analysis

Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been on a buying spree lately, with holdings increasing by almost one million ounces in the past month. This shortage of new supplies could be one of the key reasons behind the surge. On the technical front, chart patterns and the RSI are pointing upwards, which could signal more gains in the near term.

What Lies Ahead for Gold: Price Predictions and Potential Scenarios

Now that the gold price has reached the significant resistance level of $1,982, it’s an excellent time to consider the potential scenarios that could shape its future movements. So, where to next?

Scenario 1: Breaking Through Resistance

If the gold price continues its upward trajectory and manages to break through the supply zone at $1,988, we might witness another bullish leg with the next resistance line in sight at $2,016. This would be a fascinating development, as it could signify a sustained upward trend, and traders should keep a close eye on this key level.

Scenario 2: A Dip and Support

On the flip side, should the gold price experience a retreat and break below the $1,974 price level, it could enter the demand zone, potentially dipping to $1,953. Such a move might provide an attractive entry point for those looking to buy on the dip.

A Note of Caution

While it’s all sunshine and rainbows for gold enthusiasts, don’t forget that markets can be unpredictable. There’s always the possibility of profit-taking, which could reverse the current bullish trend. So, keep your eyes peeled and be ready for any surprises.

In the world of trading and investing, it’s all about understanding the various potential scenarios and planning your moves accordingly. As gold enthusiasts, let’s remain vigilant and prepared for whatever the market may throw our way.

The coming days and weeks are sure to bring more excitement and opportunities in the gold market. Stay tuned and stay informed!

I didn’t like that trade. It was too close to a support zone. I felt like price had hit a good supply zone, and it gained some pips. But I got in too late. Price was already outside the supply zone. I really didn’t liked those 4 pin bars one after the other… Made me nervous. Closed half of my trade while I was in profit, and kept the other one running… just in case things would go my way. Still, it didn’t. I was somewhat right. And I can pat myself on the shoulder for this one, as thing are really bullish for now.

I didn’t lose on that second position. I had moved my  stop loss to break even when I closed my first position. Another pat on my shoulder…..

Let’s find another one!

Ok. Here is an example of what NOT to do!! This is really a noob mistake, and the part that hurts a lot, is that I am not that much of a noob…

I really got butt f&%d on this one. An its totally MY fault. What I had figured out to be a very nice demand zone, was actually one. Price got well inside the zone. Price was showing indecision inside the zone. It was a zone also at a low support zone. Everything was in place for a nice reversal. At least, I would be almost sure to get to 1 ATR and move my stop loss to break even.

But here where the ugly comes in…..

I traded this 2 days BEFORE ONE OF THE BIGGEST FED CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT!!!

So what happened….

Here is how the trade was placed:

Long at 1.1157. Stop loss at 1.1080.
Trade got opened. Then things started to go south…. (no pun intended….)
Fed conference.
And after the announcement…. Got a big F.U. candle, and my stop got hit big time.

So that’s that. And I’m seriously pissed… of myself.

Please, kids, don’t do stupid mistakes like this….. PLEASE!!

OK. Let’s go simulate for a while, and look for the next trade.

Yeah, well…. I opened long on this one at 1.2288. I felt that price has reached a demand level and was far from the next supply zone and the equilibrium of the price. Today’s candle started to make me think otherwise. I didnt felt that the price had enough momentum to make it move forward. I didn’t want to close it, so I moved my stop loss to break even, just in case that momentum would catch up and drive price higher.

It does not seem that it is going to happen. We are in a downtrend right now and I feel that the price will keep moving down.

I will keep looking at this one, to see if I have been right or wrong. At least, no profit, but no loser today.

 

A little trade at supply level that gave me a little 34 pips of profit on half of my trade. When it go to 1 ATR, I closed half and moved my stop to break even. Price turned around and hit my stop loss.

Oh well. Any profit is profit. It’s always better than taking a loss. I prefer a little profit than seeing a winning trade turn into a looser.

Price is going back in the supply zone. Let’s see if it wants to turn around again.

 

This trade looks like it’s gonna be an amazing trade! This is the second time price hit that low since December 2018. At that time, price rallied back with a very nice bullish engulfing candle, which created a demand zone.

I took that trade from the return of the price to the demand zone. I used price action to get a long order at 1.2550. Price has now moved 166 pips passed my buy order, which is pretty great!

Price is moving fast toward my first TP, where I will close half of my position and let the rest ride until I get a signal that momentum is slowing down.

Let’s see where this goes.

UPDATE: June 23rd 2019

I have closed my half of my position at 1.2721 for a profit of 173 pips. Great trade so far. Moving my stop lost to break even. I have made more that 2xATR of profit so far. Bullish candles seems to be showing that there will be more momentum in the next days. Let’s keep an eye for possible reversal price action near latest higher high.

UPDATE: June 29rd 2019

I closed the 2nd half of this trade at 1.2729. Price was reaching a supply zone and a resistance zone. Price started showing a reversal candle. Still, this trade was pretty profitable. Closed the first half for 171.3 pips of profit and the second half for 179.3 pips.

Lets see if we can find another one.

The EUR/USD pair has been in consolidation since the end of October. Il keeps hitting the 1.4600 and the 1.2900 zones. I am setting alerts as if the price gets to break the highest bull fractal or lowest bear fractal of the consolidation zone, I will probably be waiting for a pullback and proper price action to get in if there is a new trend forming.

I have been watching the GBP/CAD par for a while now. It has been in consolidation since the month of august 2018. It has been constantly rebounding between the 1.7250 and 1.6600 level. I have set alarms and I keep checking it every time it gets close to those limits again. Ichi is no good in those situations. Right now, I am watching for a break of the highest bull fractal, which is at 1.72835. If I get a candle to close above this line, I will check really closely price action to see if a trend could be starting.